Seeley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

564
FXUS65 KPSR 050528
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1025 PM MST Sun May 4 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cool and wet low pressure system will affect the
Desert Southwest into Tuesday with below normal temperatures and
above normal rain chances. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be
widespread through tonight with lingering shower chances into at
least early Tuesday. Desert temperatures will be mainly in the 70s
into Tuesday before rebounding and exceeding 100 by Friday and into
next weekend as the heat quickly returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The big pattern shift is underway across the region as an
unseasonably strong upper low shifts slowly across the region over
the next few days. This will offer up well below normal temperatures
and well above normal rain chances into at least early Tuesday.

Currently, water vapor imagery showing the cyclonic circulation
centered across SE CA. Showers and thunderstorms already filling in
north and northeast of the circulation especially across Riverside
County CA and east into La Paz and portions of Maricopa and Pinal
Counties. Localized higher CAPE values approaching 1000 J/KG being
realized across these areas. Slow movement of storms and some
training will result in some locally heavy rainfall and some minor
flooding not out of the question, especially into Riverside and La
Paz Counties. Gusty south to southwest winds also feeding this
system. Highest winds across far SW Imperial County with gusts 40 to
50 mph, so wind advisory for that area still on track through
tonight.

The upper low will be slow to progress east with time, moving across
AZ through the day on Monday and into NM by Tuesday. This will
result in cool and showery weather from tonight through the day on
Monday with some lingering affects on Tuesday. After todays
instability and locally heavier rain rates in storms, instability
weakens in cool airmass Monday and so the storm chances and higher
rainfall intensities will lessen.

By late in the week into next weekend, ridge builds quickly across
the region and in response temperatures will rise rapidly with
Moderate HeatRisk. We could be looking at the hottest temperatures
of the season, maxing on Saturday 103-106 degrees in the lower
deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0525Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Occasional showers, erratic wind directions, and periods of low CIGs
will be potential weather impacts through Monday evening. SHRA/TSRA
have exited the PHX airspace late this evening, and model guidance
suggests activity remaining outside the area through much of the
overnight. However, scattered SHRA may re-enter the area Monday
morning before another round of clearing Monday afternoon and
evening. Light and variable winds late this evening should trend
more towards E/SE, however unusual directions may materialize Monday
morning if SHRA begin to directly affect any particular terminal
site. While probabilities of MVFR cigs still remains quite high,
timing of onset and duration carries very low forecast confidence,
and may hold off until later Monday morning/early afternoon and only
persist briefly. Regardless, cigs under 060 appears very likely
through much of the daylight hours Monday. A round of more
persistent -RA and lower cigs may sweep across the airspace late
Monday evening and overnight.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty west winds will be the main weather impact at KIPL under
occasional mid/high cloud decks. Wind speeds should begin weakening
during the overnight, though there may be some gustiness returning
Monday evening. Wind directions at KBLH will be far more variable
through the period with more persistent cloud cover. In fact, model
guidance strongly suggests another round of -RA moving through the
area late Monday afternoon/evening with cigs solidly around 7K ft
AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An unseasonably cool and wet weather system will affect the region
into Tuesday. This system bringing an initial round of gusty winds
into tonight with otherwise increased rain chances and below normal
temperatures. There will be widespread showers and thunderstorms into
this evening with a lingering chance of showers through the day
Monday and into early Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances will be greatest
this evening across eastern Riverside and La Paz Counties. With
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal, humidities will see good
recovery with minimums remaining mostly above 35-45% for Monday and
Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region Thursday and
into next weekend leading to drier and warmer conditions with above
normal temperatures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frieders
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Frieders